2019: Why Buhari may lose election – US intelligence firm

Teneo Intelligence, a New York-based analysis firm, has said President Muhammadu Buhari could lose the 2019 election.

The firm based its prediction on the outcome of the inconclusive Osun state governorship election.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will on Thursday conduct supplementary election in four local governments of Osun State.

INEC had on Sunday announced results of the governorship election, with candidate of PDP, Ademola Adeleke, leading with 254,698 votes while APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola, polled 254,345.

In a report obtained by Bloomberg, the intelligence firm said if the opposition manages to unite, February election would be a tough one for the ruling APC.

“There is already a clear message sent from Osun State: provided the PDP remains united, and the vote is reasonably free and fair, Buhari and his APC are likely to lose the general election,” Malte Liewerscheidt, an analyst at Teneo, said.

HSBC Bank, a global financial organisation, had earlier predicted that Buhari may lose next year and that Nigeria’s economy will take a downturn if he wins in 2019.

In its report titled: “Nigeria: Papering Over The Cracks”, HSBC said, “A second term for Mr Buhari however raises the risk of limited economic progress and further fiscal deterioration, prolonging the stagnation of his first term, particularly if there is no move towards completing reform of the exchange rate system or fiscal adjustments that diversify government revenues away from oil.

“In the near term, however, the election impact is likely to be negative as increased political uncertainty precludes policy reforms, weighs on confidence, deters investment spending and restrains the growth outlook.”