Nigeria’s leading airline could soon be under new management.
Ethiopian Airlines has submitted a formal offer to take charge of troubled carrier Arik Air, which accounts for more than half of Nigerian air passenger traffic, according to official statistics.
“We have outlined our terms and conditions to the Nigerian government and we are waiting to see if they agree,” Esayas WoldeMariam, Ethiopian’s managing director of international services, told CNN. “We are capable and desirous of handling the airline.”
WoldeMariam did not specify details of the offer, but added that he expects to face competition for Arik from international airlines.
Nigeria’s Ministry of Aviation did not respond to a request for comment but Godfrey Odudigbo, minister plenipotentiary at the Nigerian embassy in Addis Ababa, said that negotiations over Arik could be concluded by the end of the year.
An Ethiopian Airlines Dreamliner jet. The company has enjoyed rapid growth in recent years.
Arik has been operated by the state-owned Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) since a government bailout in February.
The bailout was forced by a prolonged crisis that saw services canceled, staff unpaid, and mounting debt.
Arik’s Managing Director Captain Roy Ilegbodu reported in August that the company had stabilized under AMCON’s leadership, with services running smoothly and salaries paid.
But the offer from Ethiopian may be attractive for a cash-strapped government struggling through a prolonged recession.
Nigerian air passengers have faced frequent inconvenience from disrupted services.
Taking off
By contrast, Ethiopian Airlines is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable carriers on the continent.
The airline reported a 10 percent increase in revenue to $2.4 billion for 2015/16, with a 70 percent rise in profits, and passenger numbers climbed 18 percent to 7.6 million.
Ethiopian is pursuing ambitious development at home, with the $345 million expansion of Addis Ababa’s Bole International Airport, and abroad, having acquired a 49 percent stake in Malawian Airlines and 40 percent of ASKY Airlines in Togo.
Nigeria, with the largest population in Africa and high demand for air travel, is an attractive prospect for an ambitious airline. But it is unlikely to offer a smooth ride.
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FlySafair – One of the newest kids on the block, FlySafair launched in October 2014 in direct competition with Kulula and Mango. Ticket prices have been pared back recently to reflect lower fuel prices.
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Fly540 – After ventures into Ghana and Angola proved costly, Fly540 refocused its attentions to Kenya where it has achieved great success connecting remote locations such as Lodwar with the rest of the country.
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JamboJet – Another Kenyan airline, this one serving only four cities, JamboJet has recently been cleared to fly across Africa from Nairobi and Mombasa.
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Dana Air – Closed in 2012 following a serious crash, Dana Air is back. It’s still limited to domestic flights within Nigeria, but an international license is on the horizon.
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flydubai.com – Although not strictly African, flydubai.com nevertheless connects 12 cities on the continent — albeit via Dubai. Hargeisa in Somaliland is the next location to feature on its destination list.
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Fastjet – Initially plying domestic routes in Tanzania, fastjet started small in 2011, but has since expanded to four other countries. With Ed Winter, a former easyJet executive at the helm, it’s looking to break into the lucrative South African domestic market.
Risk and reward
A deal could benefit both parties, according to aviation industry analysts.
“It makes sense for the Nigerian government to find a new partner for management of Arik, as it is a drain on their finances,” says Oliver Clark, Sub-Saharan Africa specialist at the Flight Global consultancy. “Ethiopian has a good track record of taking over management with airlines such as ASKY.”
Ivan Nadalet, vice president at industry analyst CH Aviation, agrees that a takeover by Ethiopian could be “very beneficial” for Arik. But he believes the Nigerian government must resolve the company’s debts, reported to be more than $800 million, to create the conditions for recovery.
“Putting in place a good management team without addressing the all-important issue of debt is like getting Usain Bolt to run the 100 meters with a 200 kilogram millstone around his neck,” says Nadalet. “Arik may make progress in the short-term, but sooner or later, someone somewhere is going to have to bite the bullet [and clear the debt].”
“The real question here is: how far is the Nigerian government really willing to go to save Arik Air?”
The company’s future is likely to become clearer in the coming months. But for now, Nigeria’s national carrier and its passengers remain up in the air.
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