How the budget stacks up against the Liberals’ promises

It’s tempting, when a new federal budget lands, to treat it like a report card — tick the boxes, circle the misses, hand out grades. But politics rarely fits neat rows and columns. Promises get vague, numbers shift, and sometimes a pledge is more about tone than specific dollars. Still, if you squint, you can trace a line between what Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals said on the campaign trail and what they actually included in the budget. Some promises are clearly met, others are partially kept, and a few are left dangling.

Tariffs and the auto workers

Remember the tariff fight? After the U.S. slapped a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian-made vehicles, Carney — then prime minister during the campaign — said every dollar collected from retaliatory tariffs would go straight to help autoworkers. That’s a headline-friendly promise: simple, direct, easy to measure. Except politics is messier than a slogan.

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So far, Ottawa has collected about $6.7 billion from counter-tariffs since those tensions began. Roughly $3 billion of that has been given out to companies and workers most affected — steel, aluminum, and yes, autos among them. That leaves about $3.7 billion sitting unallocated, at least on paper. The government argues there’s room to maneuver: other tariffs have been applied, needs evolve, and more targeted payments could still come later as the trade war continues. Still, if you were expecting every single dollar to be handed over as promised, you’re going to be disappointed. The intent is partially honored, but the literal pledge? Not fully.

Defence spending and NATO

During the campaign, the Liberals committed to raise Canada’s defence spending to two per cent of GDP by 2030 — the well-known NATO benchmark. Under pressure from international partners, Carney later agreed to aim even higher: a total of five per cent of GDP, which included 1.5 per cent earmarked for support infrastructure. Those are big numbers, and they sound decisive. The question is: do the budget figures back them up?

This year’s budget claims Canada will hit the two per cent of GDP target faster than first promised — already within the next fiscal year, apparently. That looks like a firm win. But then things get fuzzy. The budget doesn’t lay out a clear year-by-year defence spending plan, nor does it show projected defence spending as a share of GDP beyond the immediate claim. So, did they commit and follow through? Partly. The headline is there, but the long-term blueprint that would let you check future compliance is missing. I find that frustrating, and probably you will too—especially if you wanted to track this properly.

Housing: almost doubling

Housing was a huge pitch on the campaign trail. The Liberals said they would boost homebuilding to 500,000 units a year — essentially doubling the existing output. The mechanism: a new agency called Build Canada Homes, with $10 billion in direct spending and $25 billion in loans to developers. Pretty clear, right?

They did establish the agency last September, and the latest budget puts $13 billion over five years into it as an “initial” investment. So there’s action. But the promise has been softened: the language has shifted from “double” to “nearly double.” The budget now projects 430,000 to 480,000 homes built annually — close, but not the full 500,000. That matters. Partly because housing is a real pressure point for many people, and partly because rounding down a promise is a common political move. They’re close enough to claim progress, but not so close that the original target was fully met.

AI investment: less than expected

Artificial intelligence is being talked about as the next big engine of economic growth, and the Liberals promised eye-catching figures on the campaign trail. Carney pledged $2.5 billion for digital infrastructure over two fiscal years — chips, data centres — plus training supports like $15,000 for workers in priority sectors to upskill in AI tools. Ambitious, tangible commitments.

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The budget, however, shows a much smaller federal commitment. It sets aside $925 million over five years for public AI infrastructure — and almost $800 million of that had already been announced previously. So the new money is fairly limited. The rest of the plan seems to be to try to attract private capital, but the budget is vague on exactly how that will work. I can see the reasoning — governments often lean on the private sector for big tech builds — but the gap between campaign promises and the budgeted reality is significant here.

CBC funding and a Eurovision aside

One smaller but notable item: the Liberals promised immediate support for CBC/Radio-Canada, with $150 million in new funding plus better governance requirements. The budget includes the $150 million, so that’s straightforward. But there’s a curious line about exploring participation in Eurovision. That wasn’t in the campaign text, yet it made the budget splashier, oddly specific and a little whimsical. It doesn’t change the funding fact, but it does show how budgets can sprinkle in surprises that weren’t front-and-centre on the campaign trail.

So, did they keep their promises?

Short answer: yes, sometimes; half the time, sort of; and other times, not exactly. Some pledges were met in spirit but not in exact wording or timing. Others were scaled back or wrapped in vagueness. That’s not unusual. Campaign promises are often aspirational; budgets are where reality — fiscal limits, shifting priorities, external shocks — meets aspiration.

If you want a clean thumbs-up or thumbs-down, this won’t give it to you. But if you’re interested in the real work of governance, the budget shows where the government chose to spend political capital and where it left room for maneuver. That, arguably, tells you more than a simple yes/no checklist ever could.