As the province puts its Alberta Pension Plan consultations on hold and awaits asset transfer figures from the Office of the Chief Actuary of Canada, a new poll suggests Albertans remain unconvinced about the idea of going it alone.
The poll by the Angus Reid Institute, which conducted an online survey between Nov. 24 and Dec. 1, found that of those surveyed in Alberta, 48 per cent said they opposed the idea of leaving the Canada Pension Plan, compared with 36 per cent who supported it. Seventeen per cent said they weren’t sure, or couldn’t say.
Across the country, more than half in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Atlantic Canada oppose the idea, the poll suggests. The proposal is more popular in Saskatchewan and Quebec, with 31 and 32 per cent in support, respectively. Quebec has operated its own pension plan since 1966.
“We put the question to Albertans, specifically, and also to Canadians across the country, around would you want to see this not only for Alberta, but for your own province specifically,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute.
The Alberta government released a report in late September on the possibility of establishing an Alberta-only pension plan, with that report claiming the province would be entitled to a $334-billion asset transfer from the CPP in 2027, which would represent more than half of the fund.
On Friday, pension engagement panel chair Jim Dinning acknowledged the months of apprehension that figure had drawn from various economists, the board of the Canada Pension Plan and from Albertans who have participated in provincial panels.
“It is hard for Albertans to provide concrete perspectives when many variables concerning an Alberta plan depend upon the size of that asset transfer,” Dinning said at a news conference in Edmonton.
When it comes to the new Angus Reid Institute poll, the size of that asset transfer is one of the key issues driving skepticism around the plan, according to Kurl.
“Canadians and Albertans themselves are pretty skeptical as to whether that would be the number that Ottawa says, ‘Sure, you can take this amount, you can take this 53 per cent,'” Kurl said.
The poll also suggests that 51 per cent of Albertans worry that they would be worse off under an Alberta Pension Plan, compared with 31 per cent who said they would be better off. Eighteen per cent said they thought the plan would make no difference.
The Alberta government wants out of the Canada Pension Plan — and the province wants to take more than half of the pot with it. Andrew Chang breaks down how Alberta arrived at its $334 billion take-home figure — and why some experts say the province needs to double check its math.
The passion factor
What is also driving a lack of support for the plan in Alberta, the poll suggests, is uncertainty among right-of-centre voters, Kurl said.
“When you look at those Alberta numbers, only 18 per cent, or one in five Albertans, really support the notion of pulling itself out of the CPP and setting up its own APP,” Kurl said.
“Instead, what we see is 40 per cent on the other side were strongly opposed. So when you look at the passion factor or the enthusiasm factor, the passion has really coalesced around a hard no, like a hell no, as opposed to a hell yes.”
The provincial pension proposal is something that Alberta’s government has invested a lot of time and money into, noted Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.
But there are a lot of questions that remain around how it might affect people’s individual pensions, she said, as well as a lot of questions around how it would affect other Canadians.
“We’re seeing that in the poll as well. A number of Canadians are quite concerned about it, particularly, I think, because of the [asset transfer claim],” Williams said.
“So, I think there are more questions than answers involved here. It hasn’t played well.”
The Angus Reid Institute said its online survey was conducted among a representative randomized sample of 3,749 Canadian adults who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Subsets of the sample (provincial proportions) will have a larger margin of error. In Alberta, 392 respondents were included, and the comparable margin of error for the Alberta subsample would be plus or minus 5 percentage points.
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